Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of lithium carbonate continued to operate under pressure at the end of the year, with weak fluctuations. As of December 31, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 76,400 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.8% from the same period last month at 78,600 RMB/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 78,800 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the same period last month at 81,200 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

From the perspective of the supply side:

The production of lithium carbonate continued to rebound in November and December, especially with significant increases in the high operating rates of spodumene and lithium mica, keeping the supply running at a high level. But some lithium salt factories had Spring Festival maintenance plans, and it is expected that production will decrease.

From the perspective of demand side:

The operating rate of the top domestic ternary material factories in December was relatively high. In contrast, the reduction and shutdown of small and medium-sized ternary material factories were more obvious. Guided by the expectations of battery companies to rush to install and export power batteries, it is expected that the production scheduling of top ternary material companies will maintain a high level in January.

From the perspective of imports:

In November 2024, the import volume of lithium concentrate in China was 482,500 tons, a decrease of 4% compared to the previous month. The decrease was mainly due to the decline in imports of Australian and Nigerian mines, but there was a significant increase in lithium imports from Brazil and Zimbabwe. From January to November 2024, a total of 5.215 million tons of lithium concentrate were imported, an increase of 35% compared to the same period last year. Lithium ore imports were still at a high level.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ lithium carbonate data analyst believes that lithium salt factories may experience a decline in production after the year, coupled with continued high demand from downstream material factories. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience strong fluctuations at the beginning of the year, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

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