Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China had risen this month (12.1-12.30), with an average market price of 239,800 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 244,910 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 2.13%.

Analysis review

At the beginning of December, tin prices showed a fluctuating upward trend, and began to decline in mid December, stabilizing and oscillating towards the end of the month. Macroscopically, the uncertainty will increase next year, and there was temporarily no clear guidance on the trend of tin prices.

At the mining end, Myanmar's imports of tin ore had not yet recovered this month, and domestic mines had not significantly increased production, resulting in a low supply of tin ore.

On the refining end, although there had been no significant increase in the mining end, it had been affected by the replenishment of recycled tin, resulting in a high operating rate of tin ingots throughout the year and a historically high production of refined tin. With the recent recovery of Indonesian exports and a significant increase in domestic imports, the supply of refined tin had increased significantly.

On the demand side, in the short term, due to the downward consolidation of prices, downstream consumption performance slightly exceeded expectations, and overall demand growth had been maintained. The semiconductor industry was in an upward cycle, which supports demand. The demand for photovoltaics continued to weaken. Pay attention to the impact of changes in foreign tariff policies on tin demand.

Market outlook

Overall, the trend of tin prices will depend on the combined effect of multiple factors. On the one hand, with the recovery of the global economy and the development of emerging fields, the demand for tin is expected to continue to increase. On the other hand, the production capacity of tin will continue to increase, and the uncertainty on the supply side may have an impact on tin prices. It is expected that the tin price will show a fluctuating to be weaker trend, showing a slight fatigue, and the upward driving force is not obvious.

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