The domestic refined oil price adjustment window for this round opened at 24:00 on January 2. The zero selling price of refined oil in this round has slightly increased, and the retail price in 2025 has achieved a good start, marking the first increase. The crude oil market trend has risen during the cycle, and the retail price of refined oil in 2025 has started to increase.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market is mainly slightly higher. As of the 1st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.72 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.64 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains positive. As of the 2nd, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 1.35%, corresponding to a domestic retail price increase of about 70 RMB/ton for gasoline and diesel, a price increase of 0.05 RMB/liter for 92 # gasoline, and 0.06 RMB/liter for 95 # gasoline. The price of 0 # diesel has been increased by 0.06 RMB/liter.
In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of local refineries is still at a low level recently. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 57%, and the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 84%. The supply of refined oil products is normal. Recently, there has been a strong demand for gasoline in the past two seasons, and gasoline terminal consumption has increased compared to before. Intermediaries are replenishing their inventory according to demand, and with the decrease in temperature, the use of car air conditioning has increased, which is favorable for the gasoline market. However, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, and the gasoline market trend has slightly increased.
In terms of diesel, there has been little change in the supply side diesel market recently. In terms of demand, the northern region has been affected by the cold wave, and severe weather has restricted outdoor mining, infrastructure and other units from starting work. With the decline in activity in the logistics and transportation industry, diesel demand has not performed well. However, the export side has driven diesel demand, and traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. Refineries have reduced prices and promotions. Overall, diesel prices have slightly fallen.
Looking ahead, the current crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. International crude oil may experience wide fluctuations. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has not changed much, and the supply of refined oil has eased market pressure. The demand for gasoline is still acceptable, but the impact on new energy cannot be underestimated, and gasoline market prices have slightly increased; In terms of diesel demand, with the gradual weakening of demand and the reduction of diesel usage, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market remains weak in the short term.
If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.