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SunSirs: China BR Market Rose and Fell with Range Fluctuations in December
January 03 2025 09:51:38SunSirs(Selena)

The BR market in December showed an upward trend in the early stage, but fell back from its peak at the end of the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of December 31, the BR market price in East China was 13,720 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.54% from 13,380 RMB/ton at the beginning of December, and the high point during the cycle was 13,920 RMB/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of BR has shifted upwards; BR production has increased, and supply pressure is expected to increase; Downstream tire production has steadily increased slightly, providing strong support for the demand for BR., As of December 31st, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze BR in East China were 13,650-13,850 RMB/ton.

Since December, the price of butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of BR has shifted upward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 31st, the price of butadiene was 10,800 RMB/ton, an increase of 11.05% from 9,725 RMB/ton at the beginning of December.

In December, the domestic production of BR equipment increased to around 7.7%, and coupled with the planned trial operation of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's BR equipment, the supply pressure of BR will slightly increase in the later stage.

Demand side: Since December, downstream tire production has remained stable with a slight increase, and demand is supported by the strong demand in the BR market. As of December 31st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises has slightly increased to about 62%.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for BR remains strong; The production of BR has slightly increased, and the pressure on the supply side has increased; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for BR is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

 

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