According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating and consolidating since December. As of December 31, the spot rubber market in China was around 16,890 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from 17,027 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17,740 RMB/ton, and the low point was 16,604 RMB/ton.

The weather in the main production areas of natural rubber continued to improve in early December, and the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas gradually increased. In the early stage, the price of natural rubber raw materials fell, and the heavy rain in Thailand at the end of the month affected the rubber cutting process. The international price of natural rubber raw materials has rebounded. Overall, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad in December were the main trend, which still provides some support for natural rubber prices. As of December 31st, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 17200 RMB/ton.

The natural rubber inventory continued to increase in December, which had a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of December 29, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 477,600 tons, an increase of 54,100 tons from 423,500 tons at the end of November.

Since December, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of December 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region has increased to about 6.20%.

Currently, domestic and international raw materials are in the peak season for rubber production, and raw material prices may continue to decline slightly in the later period; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; But the slight increase in Tianjian inventory has brought certain pressure to the market mentality. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience a weak and volatile downward trend in the short term.

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