According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the petroleum coke industry in December showed an inverted V-shaped trend, with prices overall rising. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1,602.50 RMB/ton on January 3 and 1,540.00 RMB/ton on December 1, with a monthly increase of 4.04%.

Cost wise: The international crude oil market in December was mainly volatile, with the main positive factors being the market's belief that the Asian economy is expected to improve, coupled with the risk of new sanctions faced by some oil producing countries, and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories.

Supply side: In the first half of December, the shipment of refined petroleum coke was active, and the inventory of petroleum coke was low. The market supply was relatively tight, and downstream negative electrode and carbon enterprises actively entered the market to push up the price of petroleum coke. In the second half of December, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and refinery prices fluctuated. At the end of the month, downstream enterprises mainly received goods for urgent needs, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Recently, imported petroleum coke has been gradually entering the port for storage, and the port inventory has increased.

On the demand side: Currently, there is insufficient release of downstream procurement demand, and there are few new orders in the market. The overall operating rate of the silicon metal market has slightly decreased, and the overall operating rate is at a low level throughout the year. Among them, the operating rate in Yunnan is around 45%, the operating rate in Xinjiang is around 60%, and in Sichuan, due to high electricity prices during the dry season and sluggish market conditions, the overall operating rate is close to 13%. However, due to the drag of demand, there is still some supply pressure in the market, and the supply-demand contradiction is exposed. The overall support of the silicon metal market is insufficient.

In December, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke first rose and then fell, which was basically consistent with the trend of the raw material petroleum coke market. Downstream procurement demand was limited, and market transactions were average.

In December, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots decreased slightly. As of December 30th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 473,000 tons, compared to 553,000 tons on November 31st, and 80,000 tons were sold out. In December, some regions reduced production. Sichuan region reduced production due to entering the dry season, with an expected reduction of around 200,000 tons. Some enterprises in Guangxi region reduced production slightly due to cost factors. As of December, the operating capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry was around 43 million tons, an increase of 3% compared to the same period last year. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

At present, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement of petroleum coke is average, which has limited support for the petroleum coke market. However, the inventory of petroleum coke in local refineries is currently low, and with the approach of the end of the year, downstream may replenish before the holiday. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may rise in January.

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