According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, softwood pulp and hardwood pulp maintained an upward trend last week. On January 3, 2025, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,450 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.06% compared to the average price on December 29. On January 3rd, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,650 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to the average price on December 29th.

On the supply side, the import of coniferous and broad-leaved pulp increased slightly month on month in November, but the pressure brought by broad-leaved imports was slightly higher than that of coniferous. In January 2025, the prices of foreign wood pulp have all increased, which has a positive driving effect on the spot prices of domestic wood pulp. Short term supply is expected to remain loose, but the pressure margin is weakening.

On the demand side: Currently, the inventory of raw materials in downstream paper mills is already low, with the Spring Festival holiday in January and February leading to low domestic imports. However, after the start of production in March and April, the market demand enters the peak season, resulting in high consumption of raw wood pulp. Therefore, there is a short-term replenishment demand for paper mills.

Domestic port data: Domestic port inventory has shown a trend of destocking for two consecutive weeks this week. As of January 2, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 1.795 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 3.3% month on month. However, the inventory of Qingdao Port, a mainstream domestic port, shows a narrow range of accumulation, with a slowdown in shipment speed during the cycle, with an average daily shipment of 14,000 tons. The quantity of broad-leaved pulp in the port is more than that of coniferous pulp; The inventory at Changshu Port also showed a trend of destocking, with little change in shipping speed during the week and a cumulative shipment of over 140,000 tons.

In terms of futures, pulp futures prices fluctuated upward this week. As of January 3, 2025, the opening price of the main contract sp2503 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,042 RMB/ton, the closing price was 6,026 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 6,056 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 0.67%. The trading volume was 248000 lots, and the position was 149669 lots.

According to the wood pulp analyst from SunSirs, with the rise in external quotations, improvement in overseas market consumption, low port inventory in the domestic market, and demand for pre holiday paper mill replenishment, it is expected that the short-term spot prices of wood pulp will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend.

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