Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the xylene market fluctuated and rose from December 30 to January 6, 2024. On December 30th, the benchmark price of xylene was 6,110 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.64% from 6,210 RMB/ton on January 6th. This week, there were slight regional differences in the performance of the xylene market, with insufficient downstream demand in Shandong region and most of the listed prices of local refineries being lowered. North China and South China regions had tight inventories, and the rise in crude oil prices had driven up the spot market.

Analysis review

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries were still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still existed, which was good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remained positive. As of January 3rd, international crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 73.96 US dollars per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was 76.51 US dollars per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec's xylene quotation summary showed that the company was temporarily operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company's quotation remained unchanged from the previous day. As of January 6th, East China Company quoted 6,200 RMB/ton, North China Company quoted 6,050 RMB/ton, South China Company quoted 6,300-6,350 RMB/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6,200 RMB/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support was still acceptable

On January 6th, the price of PX at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7,100 RMB/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on December 30th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 3rd, the closing prices of the Asian PX market were 819-821 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 844-846 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to December 30th.

Market outlook

The crude oil market has performed well recently, and it is expected that cost support will remain strong in the future. On the supply side, the inventory in Shandong region has been running at a low level recently, with good support from the supply side. Demand is facing the upcoming holiday, and downstream demand expectations are gradually weakening, providing weak support for the market. Overall, the market demand is relatively weak, and it is expected to operate steadily and to be weaker in the future.

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