The PA market first rose and then fell in 2024
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 31st, the price of OX method PA was 6,600 RMB/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the price of 7,662.50 RMB/ton on January 1st, with an overall decrease of 13.87%. The price of raw material OX first rose and then fell, and the cost support for PA was insufficient. In addition, the price of plasticizers fluctuated and fell, putting great pressure on the price of PA to decline; Plasticizer companies were operating at a high level, and the demand for PA procurement was active, which still provided demand support for PA.
Annual production capacity statistics of PA
From the production capacity statistics chart of PA, it can be seen that the production capacity of PA has been surplus for many years, and the operating rate of PA was about 60%. The PA industry was facing significant supply-demand contradictions. Due to overcapacity, the situation of oversupply in the market has intensified, leading to a continuous decline in the price of PA.
In 2024, the price of raw material OX first rose and then fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 31st, the price of OX was 6,700 RMB/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the price of 7,600 RMB/ton on January 1st, with an overall decrease of 11.84%. In 2024, the price of OX method PA declined, and the cost of OX method PA decreased, increasing the downward pressure on OX method PA. The weak adjustment of industrial naphthalene prices led to a decrease in the cost of naphthalene based PA. There was significant downward pressure on the overall cost of PA raw materials and the price of PA.
Demand side: Significant decline in DOP market in 2024
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 31st, the DOP price was 8,226.25 RMB/ton, a significant decrease of 31.97% compared to the DOP price of 12,061.67 RMB/ton on January 1st. The price of plasticizer DOP continued to decline in 2024. Although the price of plasticizer DOP briefly increased in April, May, September, and October due to the impact of peak and off peak seasons, the overall downward trend was difficult to change. In 2024, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain was relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer DOP declined, which was negative for the raw material PA market.
Future forecast
According to the PA products data analyst of SunSirs, in terms of cost, the price of OX has fallen, the price of industrial naphthalene was weakly consolidating, the cost of PA has decreased, and there was significant pressure for the cost of PA to decline; In terms of supply and demand, oversupply of PA has become the norm, with limited support for its upward trend and significant downward pressure. Overall, there is significant pressure for cost reduction and oversupply, and it is expected that the PA market will experience a weak decline in the future.
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