Price trend

In 2024, the domestic liquid ammonia market experienced weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating downward overall. According to monitoring by SunSirs, as of December 31, the annual decline in liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 28.98%.

Let's take a closer look at the annual trend of liquid ammonia:

From January to early February, the price of liquid ammonia fell sharply, reaching a high of 3,600 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, which was the highest point of the year. The market has undergone a transition from tight supply to loose supply. After experiencing the impact of reduced production caused by environmental inspections at the end of 2023, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia gradually recovered. In January, collective resumption of work and high operating rates led to a large-scale surplus of ammonia supply in the market. Overlay, the conversion of urea to liquid ammonia in co production enterprises has led to a short-term surge in ammonia production. Due to a decrease in downstream procurement, the amount of ammonia released by large factories has increased. Supply pressure continued to rise, manufacturers were lowering prices and shipping, and the market was generally falling. At this stage, the ammonia market fell by over a thousand RMB/ton, which was also the largest decline of the year.

From mid February to mid May, the market entered a period of repeated oscillation, and in mid February, the price of ammonia rebounded, mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main northern production areas. Part of the equipment in the northern region was undergoing maintenance, and the rainy and snowy weather in some areas was affecting supply, resulting in a tight market supply in the short term. There was a common phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. Returning after the holiday, downstream procurement has also recovered, and the combination of the two has led to a significant rebound in the ammonia market. In April, the ammonia market experienced a pullback due to the resumption of production and poor exports. Entering May, downstream demand in the market improved, and the delayed peak season for agricultural demand brought about a rebound in the ammonia market.

In June and July, the market was mainly volatile and downward, mainly due to high inventory pressure on enterprises. In order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices continued to be lowered. On the one hand, as supply increased, manufacturers' shipments slowed down and inventory pressure rose. On the other hand, the large import volume and low-priced foreign sources have impacted the domestic market. Supply was in an oversupply situation. Due to the lack of support from downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers, all products have experienced a decline.

From August to the fourth quarter, the ammonia market continued to fluctuate within a range, with the amplitude mainly narrowing. The approximate range was between 2,500-2,800 RMB/ton. The market has experienced a sluggish market during the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". The price did not fluctuate significantly and remained in a stable market under the pull of supply and demand. Except for partial equipment maintenance, there was not much news in the market that had a significant impact on the market. The volatile market continued until the end of the year.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.