Outlook for the Liquid Ammonia Market in 2025

Supply side: As we enter 2025, the oversupply of liquid ammonia may become even more severe. More than 5 million tons of new facilities are planned to be put into operation in China in the next year. Considering the current weak ammonia market situation and the issue of production willingness, some facilities may be delayed in production, but the market still faces the risk of oversupply.

Demand side: The growth point of downstream demand for synthetic ammonia in the future will still mainly focus on the agricultural demand port, with moderate growth in industrial demand mainly. The main demand growth point is still in the urea field. In addition, there will also be some growth potential in industrial fields such as soda ash, acrylonitrile, and CPL. However, there may be insufficient growth in demand for ammonium biphosphate and DAP. Overall, the demand for liquid ammonia will continue to increase in 2025, but the growth rate may slow down.

Overall, it is expected that the ammonia market will face a relatively severe environment in 2025, with the crisis of oversupply not yet resolved, prices may be constrained by oversupply, and corporate profits will also face challenges. The expected price will be lower than the base price in 2024.

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