In terms of cost
In 2024, under the influence of geopolitical, macro, and supply-demand fundamentals, international crude oil has emerged from a trend of rising and falling, gradually fluctuating and narrowing, and oil prices have gradually returned to fundamentals. Brent crude oil fell by 3.58% and WIT crude oil fell by 1.09% throughout the year. The supply-demand balance in 2025 will transition from a tight equilibrium state to a balanced state, mainly based on the current production capacity, combined with moderate growth in future US crude oil supply, and the absence of more intense geopolitical conflicts, taking into account the risk premium. Therefore, the upward range of oil prices is suppressed, and major institutions are relatively pessimistic and conservative about oil prices in 2025.
In 2024, the overall PX price showed a downward trend of "sideways, sharp decline, and oscillation". As of the end of the year, the average price of PX factories in China was 7,108 RMB/ton, a decrease of 17.35% from the beginning of the year. The cost support provided by the rise in crude oil prices in the first half of the year, as well as the consolidation of the market under the game of supply and demand contradictions. Subsequently, the collapse of cost support caused by the heavy decline in crude oil and the sluggish demand for oil blending intensified the supply-demand contradiction by switching to aromatics production, resulting in a significant weakening of PX prices. In the fourth quarter, due to the start of annual contract negotiations, there was a strong sense of caution in the market, resulting in slight price fluctuations and consolidation.
Starting from the second half of 2023, PX entered a production vacuum period, and there was no new production capacity added in 2024. However, due to the higher growth rate of downstream PTA demand for PX in China, the industry's annual production capacity rate has increased to a relatively high level of 86%. The growth rate of PX production capacity in 2025 is still relatively low, with only one unit in Yulong Island, Shandong Province in China, with a total production capacity of 3 million tons. After being put into operation, the total domestic production capacity will reach 46.67 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 6.9%. However, due to the fact that the unit has not been approved yet, there is still significant uncertainty in the production time. In terms of supply, considering the current low profit pattern of the industry and the regular maintenance losses within the year, the annual supply increment is very limited. At the same time, multiple downstream PTA units are expected to be put into operation in the first half of the year, so the PX supply and demand pattern will continue to improve in 2025.
From a downstream perspective
Downstream polyester products followed the fluctuation of raw material prices, showing a trend of first rising and then falling in 2024. Among them, polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) fell by 5.13%, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) fell by 6.87%, polyester POY (150D/48F) fell by 8.39%, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) fell by 9.86%.
In 2024, a total of 5.55 million tons of polyester production capacity was added (excluding obsolete production capacity), and the total production capacity reached 85.39 million tons by the end of the year, with a production capacity growth rate of 7.7%, which was slower than in 2023. Looking at 2025, the polyester industry will continue to have new production capacity entering, with a planned production of 5.14 million tons. It is expected that the polyester production capacity will reach around 90.53 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. Compared to 2024, the overall growth rate will slow down, and the actual production capacity will be lower than the planned capacity. Therefore, the actual growth rate remains to be observed.
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