From a product perspective

The planned production of polyester filament is 1.75 million tons, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 54.33 million tons by 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 3.3%. The planned production of polyester staple fiber is 100,000 tons, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 9.605 million tons by 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 1%. The planned production of polyester bottle flakes is 2.6 million tons, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 22.63 million tons by 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 12.9%. The remaining newly added production capacity is polyester film.

In 2024, the overall production capacity of the polyester production process was relatively large, and the output growth rate was still high. The capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry for the whole year was around 86%, which was at a relatively high level in recent years. In 2025, the growth rate of production capacity for polyester filament and staple fibers will still be relatively low, which can maintain a high level of operation. However, there may be a risk of temporary load reduction due to excessive inventory. Due to the delay in the production of multiple units from 2024 to 2025, the overall production pressure of Huanpian is still high. Coupled with low profits and high inventory, the expected production pressure will decrease.

In recent years, with the cost advantage of raw materials in China's production and the partial relocation of the industrial chain in the terminal weaving process, there has been a supply gap in external weaving raw materials, resulting in a remarkable growth rate of polyester exports compared to domestic demand. From January to October 2024, polyester exports amounted to 10.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. The main products exported were polyester filament, staple fiber, and bottle flakes. Among them, the cumulative export volume of bottle flakes and staple fiber increased by more than 20% in 2024, maintaining a good growth momentum. However, the export volume of polyester filament is expected to decline by 4.5% year-on-year, mainly due to the significant increase in exports caused by early stocking under the Indian BIS certification in 2023. The trade friction may further escalate in 2025, and companies need to consider how to deal with the uncertain factors of the export situation.

From the perspective of weaving process

Taking into account the negative factors before the Spring Festival in 2024, the average operating rate may be around 65%, which was comparable to 2023 as a whole. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was relatively high from March to June. In summer, due to the influence of off-season and temperature, the operating rate decreased. After September, it entered a seasonal improvement stage, and in October, the operating rate rose to the highest point of the year. In November, it gradually entered the off-season load.

From the perspective of textile terminals

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that from January to November 2024, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year, with operating revenue of 445.205 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; The total profit was 158.57 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. The production of yarn, fabric, and synthetic fiber in textile enterprises above designated size increased by 0.3%, 1.0%, and 8.7% respectively year-on-year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2024, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needle textiles in China reached 1307.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%.

According to the General Administration of Customs, from January to November 2024, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 273.06 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, textile exports were 128.84 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and clothing exports were 144.22 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. The consumer market continues to heat up, with good growth in retail sales and an overall positive export situation. We need to pay attention to changes in domestic and international policies in 2025.

SunSirs’ analysts predict that PTA prices will generally exhibit a "inverted V" trend in 2025. The pressure of self supply will continue throughout the year, becoming a resistance to the rise in PTA prices. In the first half of the year, geopolitical tensions will persist, and the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates. There are expectations of an increase in international crude oil prices, supported by favorable PTA costs. And with the boost of the peak demand season, PTA prices will fluctuate and rise. In the second half of the year, as PTA new production capacity gradually releases excess supply, the supply-demand contradiction will further highlight, and PTA prices will fluctuate and fall.

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