Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 31, 2024, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 8,800 RMB/ton, a decrease of 660 RMB/ton or 6.88% compared to the reference price of 9,450 RMB/ton for n-butanol on January 1, 2024.

From the annual trend chart of the cyclohexanone market, it can be seen that in the first half of the year (January June 2024), the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong region showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the market reached its highest point of the year in the middle of the year. In the second half of the year (July December 2024), the cyclohexanone market experienced a high-level decline, and the market price center continued to explore downward until it fell to a low level, and then began to slightly recover in December. However, the sustained warming force was not strong, and the overall decline in the cyclohexanone market came to an end.

Let's take a look at the specific performance of the cyclohexanone market in 2024:

In the first quarter, the cyclohexanone market operated in a "first up, then down" pattern, with a 2.31% increase in the first quarter.

Market influencing factors: In January and February, the market for cyclohexanone raw material benzene rose, and the cost side formed a good support for cyclohexanone. Downstream on-demand procurement, with cost fluctuations, the cyclohexanone market was gradually rising. At the end of February to March, the raw material benzene market weakened, providing weaker cost support for cyclohexanone. The market sentiment for cyclohexanone in the market gradually increased, downstream procurement was light, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market declined.

In the second quarter, the domestic cyclohexanone market as a whole showed a steady upward trend. The focus of the cyclohexanone market continued to move upwards, with market prices breaking through the 10,000 yuan mark. On June 30th, the cyclohexanone market price reference was 10,075 RMB/ton, reaching a new high for the year, with a 4.20% increase in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated and rose overall, with a growth rate of 6.61%.

Market influencing factors: In April, downstream demand for cyclohexanone was average, with ample spot supply in the market. High priced shipments were hindered, and supply and demand transmission was slow. However, the support from the raw material cost side strengthened, and the market decline was relatively low under cost support. Market consolidation was the main focus in April.

From May to June, the cyclohexanone market continued to rise and operate, with high volatility in the raw material benzene market, putting pressure on cyclohexanone costs. The low prices in the cyclohexanone market decreased, and downstream users concentrated on purchasing, resulting in smooth supply and demand transmission and a continuous upward shift in market focus.

In the third quarter, the cyclohexanone market continued to decline. The support for the cyclohexanone market was insufficient, and the market center continued to decline, falling to the level at the beginning of the year, with a decline of 6.34% in the third quarter.

Market influencing factors: From July to September, the raw material benzene market fluctuated and weakened, and the cost side provided loose support for cyclohexanone. The downstream demand for cyclohexanone was average, and high price follow-up was weak. New facilities were put into operation in some areas, and the supply side of cyclohexanone increased, resulting in slow supply and demand transmission. Under negative pressure, the cyclohexanone market price gradually approached a low level. On September 30th, the cyclohexanone market price reference was 9,400-9,500 RMB/ton.

In the fourth quarter, the decline in the cyclohexanone market did not stop. Negative sentiment continued to suppress the market, and the focus of cyclohexanone negotiations continued to shift downwards. On November 12th, the cyclohexanone market fell to a low point for the whole year, with a reference of 8,400 RMB/ton. Compared with the high point of the year, the amplitude reached 16.42%. After reaching a low point, the cyclohexanone market finally experienced a brief low-level rebound, with a slight recovery in market conditions. However, effective support was insufficient. Half a month later, the cyclohexanone market weakened again and ended in a downward trend.

It can be seen that the market trend of cyclohexanone was closely related to the impact of supply, demand, and other aspects. In the first half of 2024, the two upward driving forces of the cyclohexanone market were consistent, both related to the tight supply and demand and cost support. In the second half of 2024, the cyclohexanone market experienced two consecutive downturns due to similar factors, including a significant release of production capacity, increased supply, and weak demand that could not support high prices.

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