According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of locally refined gasoline and diesel increased in early January. As of the 9th, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,301.2 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 3.82% in early January; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,889.2 RMB/ton, with a price trend increase of 1.66% in the first half of the year.

Cost side: The rise in crude oil prices is strongly supported by strong costs

Recently, the international oil price market has been mainly rising. As of January 8th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.32 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $76.16 per barrel. On the one hand, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the trend of international oil prices is rising, which affects the domestic trend of gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining production has decreased, and the supply side has slightly declined

Recently, the operating rate of main refineries has slightly declined, and the supply of resources has decreased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 57%, while the operating rate of main refineries nationwide has dropped to around 80%. The operating rate of local refineries has slightly decreased, and the supply of refined oil products has slightly declined. Export profits have improved, and some units still have high export intentions. Due to stricter tax inspections, the scope of consumption tax on gasoline raw materials has expanded, and costs have risen, which has provided some positive support for the trend of gasoline and diesel.

Demand side: The demand situation has improved and the market trend has risen

In terms of gasoline, there has been a strong demand for gasoline in the past two seasons, and gasoline terminal consumption has increased compared to before. Intermediaries are replenishing their inventory according to demand, and with the decrease in temperature, the use of car air conditioning has increased, which is favorable for the gasoline market. However, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, and overall, gasoline prices have risen. In terms of diesel, the northern region is affected by the cold wave, and severe weather restricts outdoor industrial and mining, infrastructure and other units from starting work. With the decline in the activity of the logistics and transportation industry, the demand for diesel has not performed well. However, in terms of exports driving diesel demand, the increase in diesel prices is not as high as that of gasoline.

Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. International crude oil may experience wide fluctuations. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate remains low, and the supply of refined oil products alleviates market pressure. The demand for gasoline is still acceptable, but the impact on new energy cannot be underestimated, with gasoline market prices mainly rising; On the one hand, diesel is supported by crude oil, coupled with favorable supply, but there has been no significant improvement in demand, and the increase in diesel prices has been suppressed.

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