Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda has rebounded and stopped falling this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 827 RMB/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 885 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 7.01% and a year-on-year increase of 12.31%.

On January 9th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 822 points, up 1 point from the previous day, down 41.29% from the highest point of 1,400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 37.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Analysis review

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has risen, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 850-900 RMB/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region was stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 900-960 RMB/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region was temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2,800-2,900 RMB/ton (converted to 100%). This week, the inventory of caustic soda enterprises has declined, and the price of caustic soda purchased by downstream alumina enterprises has increased. Downstream alumina enterprises were approaching the end of the year, and their stocking enthusiasm was good. In addition, the strong operation of alumina prices has driven up the price of caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 53rd week of 2025 (12.30-1.3), there were 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen were: baking soda (0.13%); The main commodities experiencing a decline were: calcium carbide (-2.94%), light soda ash (-1.95%), and PVC (-0.36%). The average increase or decrease this week was -0.85%.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that in recent times, caustic soda prices have been operating to be stronger, and the alumina industry has been operating to be stronger. Before the year, chlor alkali enterprise inventories remains low, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively positive, with a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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