Price trend

Under the push up of costs, the domestic PTA spot market has shown an upward trend since January. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of January 13th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4,963 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.63% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

The US Treasury Department has imposed comprehensive sanctions on a European country's oil industry, intensifying market concerns about disruptions in its oil supply. International crude oil prices have risen sharply. As of January 10th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.57 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 79.76 US dollars per barrel. In addition, with the announcement of production cuts and shutdowns in multiple PX facilities both domestically and internationally, PX has opened up widely high. Both crude oil and PX prices have strengthened, and rising costs have boosted the PTA market.

In terms of self supply, Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million ton PTA plant underwent maintenance on December 12th and restarted on January 13th, 2025. Rolex's 1.25 million tons would undergo maintenance around January 13th. The spot market supply was still sufficient, and the industry operating rate was around 83%.

Downstream polyester production was around 84%, and multiple polyester units have announced official shutdown and maintenance plans, resulting in a short-term decrease in polyester production. As the Spring Festival approaching, the operating rate of terminal looms has declined, and the stocking phase has come to an end.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the factor of rising costs dominates the PTA market, but its sustainability is highly uncertain, and it is expected that the subsequent increase in PTA prices will be limited.

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