Price trend

As the Spring Festival approaching this week, the shipment volume of galvanized sheets in the market was gradually decreasing. After next week, terminals and traders will also gradually leave the market due to holidays. Taking advantage of the remaining shipment volume this week, we will focus on shipping as much as possible. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of galvanized steel coils in China has slightly increased this week. As of January 10th, the average market price of galvanized steel coils in China was 4,412.50 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.17%.

Analysis review

Fundamental: The capacity utilization rate remained at around 58% this week, and the weekly output began to decline. This year, the willingness of traders and downstream winter storage to stock up was not strong, and some production companies will also have holidays on their production lines to reduce output. Therefore, the decline in capacity utilization rate will accelerate from next week to the Spring Festival. According to the latest data obtained by SunSirs, the overall production rate of galvanized sheet this week was 81.97%; The capacity utilization rate was 58.98%, a decrease of 0.69% compared to last week; The weekly output was 841,200 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons from last week.

Traders indicate that market inventory was initially low, but as of January 10th, with a decrease in shipments and an increase in steel mill arrivals, it is expected that inventory will accumulate next week. As of January 10th, the inventory of steel mills was 454,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week. Monitoring warehouse inventory in major domestic markets: 1.0025 million tons of galvanizing, with a weekly increase of 11,400 tons.

Industry News: According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 2.635 million units in December, a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a month on month increase of 8.7%; The cumulative retail sales for the whole year were 22.894 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in December reached 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% and a month on month increase of 2.6%; The cumulative retail sales for the whole year were 10.899 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%. The annual retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 47.6%, an increase of 12 percentage points year-on-year, and the penetration rate exceeded 50% for five consecutive months in the second half of the year.

Market outlook

As of January 10th, the market price of galvanized sheet was basically in a relatively low state, and most market prices were already at the same price as or even lower than cold-rolled sheet. As the Spring Festival approaching, terminal customers who want to stock up or middlemen who want to stock up will also concentrate next week. SunSirs’ analysis believes that the price of galvanized sheet in China will remain stable next week.

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