According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined petroleum coke will first rise and then fall in 2024, and will rise after stopping the decline in the fourth quarter. On January 1st, the mainstream price of refined petroleum coke was 1,720.00 RMB/ton, and as of December 31st, the mainstream market price was around 1,615.00 RMB/ton, with an annual decline of 6.10%; Among them, the highest price in 2024 appeared at around 1,822.50 RMB/ton on January 26, and the lowest price was 1,428.50 RMB/ton on September 29, with a maximum annual amplitude of 21.62%.

In January, the inventory of local refining enterprises was low, downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday, refineries shipped actively, transactions were good, and the price of petroleum coke continued to rise. From February to September, local refining enterprises gradually entered the maintenance season, but the port actively reduced inventory, coupled with limited downstream procurement, the market is expected to continue to decline. From October to December, downstream carbon and negative electrode materials received actively, coupled with the tight supply of low sulfur sponge coke market resources in ports, the market situation was positively pushed up.

Forecast of Petroleum Coke Market in 2025

In terms of cost:

In terms of cost, crude oil prices are an important factor affecting the price of petroleum coke, and the uncertainty of future crude oil prices will lead to fluctuations in petroleum coke prices. In 2024, under the influence of geopolitical, macro, and supply and demand fundamentals, international crude oil will emerge from a trend of rising and falling, gradually fluctuating and narrowing, and oil prices will gradually return to fundamentals. The external environment in which crude oil operates in 2025 is still quite complex, with intricate geopolitical situations, which will have a direct impact on oil prices from time to time, leading to more drastic fluctuations in oil prices. It is expected that the average oil price in 2025 may still be slightly higher than in 2024, but due to demand constraints, there will not be much room for fluctuations in oil prices.

In terms of supply:

Processing capacity of delayed coking unit in China

In 2024, the total production capacity of delayed coking in China reached 145.95 million tons per year, of which the proportion of delayed coking units in local refineries reached 47%, the proportion of delayed coking units in Sinopec refineries reached 32%, the proportion of delayed coking units in PetroChina reached 15%, and the proportion of delayed coking units in CNOOC reached 6%. It is expected that the total production capacity of delayed coking in China will be around 146 million tons per year by 2025.

China's petroleum coke production

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of petroleum coke from January to November 2024 was 30.133 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%. 2024 is a major year for refinery maintenance, and except for the first quarter, China's monthly production of petroleum coke is significantly lower than that of 2023. It is expected that the total production of petroleum coke will be around 32.85 million tons in 2024 and around 33 million tons in 2025.

Import and export of petroleum coke in China

According to Chinese customs data, the import volume of petroleum coke in China from January to November 2024 was 12.4159 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2285 million tons or 15.22%. From the monthly comparison chart of 2023-2024, it can be seen that the import volume of petroleum coke in 2024 has significantly decreased compared to 2023. It is expected that the total import volume of petroleum coke in 2024 will be around 13.7 million tons, and in 2025 it will be around 14 million tons.

In terms of exports, petroleum coke mainly relies on domestic demand, and the proportion of export demand to China's total petroleum coke demand is extremely low, maintaining below 1% throughout the year. The main reason is that with the rapid development of new energy in China, the demand for petroleum coke has shifted more towards domestic sales, resulting in a relatively low export volume of petroleum coke in China.

In terms of demand:

Apparent consumption of petroleum coke in China

The apparent consumption of petroleum coke in China is expected to be 47.5 million tons in 2024. In the first half of 2024, due to factors such as equipment maintenance, the apparent consumption of petroleum coke is significantly better than in the second half, resulting in a reduction in the supply-demand gap of domestic petroleum coke in the first half of the year. Decreased import volume: It is expected that the total import volume of petroleum coke will be around 13.7 million tons in 2024, a decrease of about 2.3 million tons compared to 2023. The apparent consumption of petroleum coke is expected to be around 50 million tons by 2025.

Main downstream of petroleum coke

Electrolytic aluminum

In the downstream demand industry of petroleum coke in China, the proportion of electrolytic aluminum occupies the first place, and the electrolytic aluminum market is the driving force that determines the upward space of petroleum coke. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of electrolytic aluminum, and its domestic electrolytic aluminum production has continued to grow in recent years.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of electrolytic aluminum will mainly fluctuate widely in 2024. On January 1st, the market price of aluminum was 19,593.33 RMB/ton, and as of December 31st, the market price was around 19,783.33 RMB/ton, with an annual increase of 0.97%.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of electrolytic aluminum from January to November 2024 was 40.218 million tons, and it is expected that the total production in 2024 will be around 43.75 million tons, an increase of 4.21% compared to 41.9797 million tons in 2023. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain high and close to the capacity ceiling in 2024, and the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production is expected to slow down significantly year-on-year in 2025. It is expected that by the end of 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production will reach 44.5 million tons.

Metallic silicon

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the metal silicon market will continue to decline in 2024. On January 1st, the market price of silicon metal was 15,620 RMB/ton, and as of December 31st, the market price was around 11,690 RMB/ton, with an annual decline of 25.16%.

The significant increase in China's industrial silicon production in 2024 is mainly due to the gradual production of new projects and the expansion of existing production lines. Some existing enterprises have increased their production capacity through expansion projects. In 2024, China's industrial silicon inventory reached a historical high of about 530,000 tons, with market supply exceeding demand, and industrial silicon prices continued to fall in 2024.

Glass

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the glass market is expected to fluctuate and decline in 2024. On January 1st, the market price of glass was 22.20 RMB/ton, and as of December 31st, the market price was around 16.40 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decline of 26.13%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the investment in real estate development in China decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.1% compared to the period from January to October. The cumulative area of newly started housing construction from January to November decreased by 23.0% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 0.4% month on month; The completed area decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand by 2.3%. The sales area of commercial housing from January to November decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, narrowing by 1.5% compared to January to October. Real estate investment continues to decline significantly, with a severe shortage of new construction projects and a continued sharp decline in demand for glass in the real estate sector; In addition, due to the impact of environmental policies, some glass enterprises began cold repairs in August, reducing their demand for fuel. Due to environmental restrictions, glass factories use petroleum coke with a sulfur content of less than 3%.

Negative electrode material

The production of negative electrode materials is expected to reach 1.89 million tons in 2024, an increase of 14.5% compared to 2023. The factors affecting the production capacity of negative electrode materials include: market demand growth: With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage markets, the demand for negative electrode materials has significantly increased. Technological progress and process optimization: Enterprises improve production efficiency and reduce costs by developing new technologies and optimizing processes. Policy support: Government policies supporting new energy vehicles and energy storage technologies have driven the growth of the negative electrode material market.

In recent years, with the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for lithium batteries has also increased, which has driven the market demand for lithium battery negative electrode materials. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 23.904 million and 20.257 million respectively, an increase of 4.4% and 4.7% year-on-year; The production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.727 million and 9.594 million respectively, an increase of 37% and 41.2% year-on-year. This year, the average penetration rate of new energy vehicle production reached 44.9%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to last year.

Forecast of Petroleum Coke Market in 2025

In terms of downstream policies for petroleum coke:

Negative news: Regarding electrolytic aluminum: On November 15th, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on adjusting the export tax rebate policy, canceling the export tax rebate for products such as aluminum and copper, which will be implemented from December 1, 2024. It is expected that the increase in export costs by 2025 may lead to a decrease in the export volume of aluminum materials. In terms of fuel: On May 23, the State Council issued the "Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction from 2024 to 2025", which put forward task requirements for energy conservation and carbon reduction from 2024 to 2025. It is required that high sulfur petroleum coke shall not be used as fuel, except for existing self owned units of petrochemical enterprises. This policy has a significant impact on the demand for fuel power plants, glass plants, and cement plants, and has a negative effect on the shipment of imported pellet coke.

Positive news: In terms of negative electrode materials, the implementation of the 2024 scrapping and replacement policies has played a significant role in boosting the automotive market. It is expected that the subsidy policies for the automotive market will continue to be implemented in 2025, further boosting the automotive market. With the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for lithium batteries has also increased, which in turn has driven the market demand for lithium battery negative electrode materials.

Market forecast:

From the annual comparison of petroleum coke prices, it can be seen that the trend of the petroleum coke market in 2024 is relatively flat compared to 2021-2023. 2024 is a major year for refinery maintenance, but the port has accumulated inventory in 2022 and 2023, and will continue to reduce inventory in 2024. The market supply of petroleum coke is sufficient. The domestic petroleum coke production in 2025 may not differ much from that in 2024; The import volume of petroleum coke may slightly increase, but traders still focus on destocking. With the development of downstream industries such as steel, aluminum, carbon, and negative electrode materials, the demand for petroleum coke market will continue to grow. In 2025, the petroleum coke market will continue to maintain a mainly volatile trend, and the high point of the market may appear in the first half of the year, with an expected high point around 2,000 RMB/ton; The low point of the 2024 market is expected to occur in the second half of the year, around 1,500 RMB/ton.

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