In 2024, against the backdrop of prominent supply and demand pressures and weak costs, PVC will perform weakly. The market is generally showing a volatile downward trend. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the total decline last year was 12.13%.

The performance in the first quarter was sluggish, and the overall market showed a narrow range of fluctuations. There were two major market fluctuations during the year: in April and May, due to spring maintenance of supply side equipment and the introduction of real estate stimulus policies; The price of PVC has risen significantly, with an increase of around 500 RMB/ton. At the end of May, PVC prices reached their annual peak, with the highest price exceeding 6,000 RMB/ton. The market entered a period of volatile decline from June to August. The second wave of upward trend for the whole year occurred in September and October, mainly due to autumn maintenance and policy factors affecting the rebound of real estate market investment. At the end of the year, the market retreated for two months, and PVC accelerated its downward trend.

Production and demand: The total PVC production in 2024 is approximately 20.4963 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The apparent consumption is about 20.7345 million tons, with a slight decrease compared to the same period. The real estate sector accounts for about 65% of the demand for PVC products, but the sluggish performance of the real estate market has significantly dragged down the demand for PVC.

Capacity change: As of December 2024, the effective production capacity of the PVC industry is 28 million tons. The production plan for 2025 and later includes 200,000 tons from Gulf Chemical, 300,000 tons from Jintai, 400,000 tons from Bohai Development, etc., with a total of 2.5 million tons mainly produced by ethylene method.

Import and export situation: From January to October 2024, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 2.171994 million tons, an increase of 13.87% year-on-year; The cumulative import volume was 183,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 42.68%. The Indian market accounts for about 50% of China's PVC exports, but the anti-dumping investigation in India has a negative impact on domestic exports.

Outlook for 2025

Supply and demand situation: The contradiction between PVC supply and demand will further intensify in 2025, with a large scale of new production capacity added on the supply side, and downstream demand still facing downward pressure from the sluggish real estate investment situation. Difficulty in reducing midstream inventory, maintaining high levels, and continuing the pattern of excess.

In summary, the PVC market in 2024 is expected to experience low-level fluctuations, with prominent supply-demand contradictions and sustained price suppression. In 2025, the PVC market is expected to continue the situation of oversupply, with prices fluctuating between 4,800-6,200 RMB/ton.

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