According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market recently (1.1-1.17) fell first and then rose. As of January 17, the spot rubber market in China was around 16,908 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 16,890 RMB/ton on January 1, with a low point of 15626 RMB/ton during the cycle. Recently, raw material prices have fallen first and then risen; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase slightly; The pre holiday stocking of downstream tire factories supported the urgent demand of Tianjiao, and coupled with the rise in Shanghai rubber market this week, it drove the natural rubber spot market slightly higher.

In January, foreign natural rubber was in the peak season for rubber cutting. Coupled with favorable weather, the supply of natural rubber raw materials was sufficient in early January, and prices fell. However, the production areas in Yunnan and Hainan, China, gradually entered a period of cutting suspension. With the support of downstream stocking demand, natural raw material prices rebounded at a low level in mid to late January. As of January 17th, the price of Thai glue was 68.30 baht/kg, a significant increase from 63.00 baht/kg on the 9th and a slight increase from 66.00 baht/kg at the end of December.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of January 12, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 504,300 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons compared to the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market, with strong pre holiday stocking providing strong support for Tianjin rubber in the early stages. As stocking gradually ends near the Spring Festival, support for Tianjin rubber will gradually weaken. As of January 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire companies has slightly decreased by around 78%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased by about 60%.

The supply of foreign raw materials is gradually increasing in the current season, but the domestic market is in a period of suspension, which provides some support for natural rubber; Pre holiday stocking in the tire market provides essential support for natural rubber demand, but as the Spring Festival approaches and stocking ends, market transactions will gradually weaken; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate within a certain range in the short term.

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