According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, softwood pulp and hardwood pulp maintained an upward trend last week. On January 17, 2025, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,524 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the average price on January 12. On January 17th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,770 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.71% compared to the average price on January 12th.

On the supply side, the differentiation trend between coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp is still evident. UPM and Metsa pulp companies plan to reduce production capacity in the first half of 2025, which is expected to have a tightening effect on fundamentals and provide support for coniferous pulp prices. Since Suzano officially started production at the end of last year, its annual production capacity has reached 2.55 million tons, significantly increasing the market supply of broad-leaved pulp and making the supply environment of broad-leaved pulp more relaxed.

On the demand side, the profit of the paper mill has increased month on month, with a focus on on-demand procurement. Starting from mid January, Chinese paper companies will enter a 25 day Spring Festival routine maintenance period, and there have been no reports of extended shutdowns so far. Before the Spring Festival, influenced by domestic demand for replenishment and seasonal consumption factors, pulp prices are expected to receive some support.

Domestic port data: Last week, domestic port inventory maintained a trend of destocking. As of January 16, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream ports in China was 1.765 million tons, a decrease of 1.4% month on month.

In terms of futures, pulp futures prices have weakened and the basis has strengthened. As of January 17, 2025, the opening price of the main contract SP2503 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,990 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,998 RMB/ton, the highest price was 6,014 RMB/ton, the daily increase was 0.07%, the trading volume was 223,300 lots, and the position was 91,822 lots.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that in the medium to long term, the shipment to the port in January will remain stable, and downstream demand will remain stable and face the expectation of shutdown before the Spring Festival. There is also pressure from above. After the Spring Festival, seasonal demand weakens, and only the centralized procurement of cultural paper in spring may become the main demand. It is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will remain stable with small fluctuations in the short term.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.