Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of polyester filament has slightly increased this week. On January 17th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7,100-7,300 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8,300-8,500 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7,500-7,700 RMB/ton, with a shift in focus.

Analysis review

The extremely cold weather in Europe and America has stimulated fuel demand, and the United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. Market concerns about supply have intensified, and US crude oil inventories have significantly decreased. International oil prices have risen sharply, and the cost side has shown strong performance. Coupled with the increase of filament maintenance and production reduction devices, market supply continues to decline. Enterprises have repeatedly raised prices in line with costs, and the market center has fluctuated upwards. However, due to downstream enterprises gradually stopping for holidays and having sufficient stock in the early stage, the enthusiasm for entering the market was poor, and the level of filament production and sales data was weak. This week, the average industry operating rate of polyester filament was about 83.42%. Multiple filament devices in the filament market were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a significant decline in market operating rate. As of this Thursday, POY inventory was around 4-6 days, FDY inventory was around 10-13 days, and DTY inventory was around 15-19 days.

The demand side was difficult to sustain, but cost and supply side support still existed. There was no risk of a decline in the filament market price. Next week is the last week before the Spring Festival holiday, when more workers will return home and logistics shutdowns will increase. It is expected that on-site trading will almost come to a standstill, and downstream operating rates will drop to freezing point. The demand side is difficult to sustain, but cost and supply side support still exist, and there is no risk of price decline in the filament market.

Market outlook

Overall, it is expected that the polyester filament market will operate with a stronger cost logic next week, with limited fluctuations. The price range for POY150D/48F polyester filament in Zhejiang region is expected to be 7,300-7,400 RMB/ton.

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