Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 13th to 17th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8,471 RMB/ton to 8,442 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.50%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.53%. The domestic BDO market was exploring the bottom weakly. As the Spring Festival holiday approaching, most downstream factories have reduced their workload or stopped for vacation, resulting in a decrease in the demand side's digestion of raw materials. However, the supply of BDO was still acceptable, but the pressure of supply and demand has increased. Holding manufacturers had a shipping mentality, and the focus of negotiations was fluctuating downward.

Analysis review

On the supply side, although the Lanshan Tunhe Phase III agent has been replaced, Wanhua and Kaixiang have maintained stable operation after early maintenance and restart of parking devices, resulting in an increase in BDO supply and average support on the supply side. The supply side provided bearish factors for the market.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has maintained stable operation. With the approaching Spring Festival and the increasing expectations of rainy and snowy weather in northern regions, downstream stocking enthusiasm has significantly increased. Recently, there has been a noticeable destocking in Wuhai and Ningxia regions. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market was fluctuating at a high level. As of 3:00 pm on January 17th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang was 2,695 RMB/ton. The market for raw material calcium carbide remained stable, while methanol prices tended to strengthen and consolidate. The cost of BDO provided favorable factors for the market.

On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the terminal spandex production has declined and the market was running weakly, resulting in multiple downstream PTMEG units experiencing load reduction, parking or maintenance expectations, and a decrease in industry load. Other downstream industries such as PBAT, TPU, and PU pulp have also experienced a significant decline in industry load due to poor terminal follow-up. The demand side of BDO provided bearish factors for the market.

Market outlook

The operation of the device was relatively stable, and the supply side support was average; However, the downstream load of the terminal has declined, which has led to the digestion of inventory of raw materials, and the pre holiday stocking has basically ended, resulting in increased supply and demand pressure. SunSirs’ BDO analyst predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.

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