Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 12th to 17th, the domestic ethyl alcohol price rose from 5,195 RMB/ton to 5,207 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.24% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 19.11%. The domestic edible ethyl alcohol market was mainly characterized by stable prices. Overall, the supply of spot goods on site was relatively loose. With the Spring Festival travel rush, the country was also experiencing the coldest time of the year. With logistics gradually taking a break, terminal stocking may be nearing its end.

Analysis review

In terms of cost, the price of corn in the main production areas was stable with some increase, corresponding to a cost increase of 10-40 RMB/ton. The profit margin of alcohol enterprises was still slim. Based on the current corn and alcohol prices, the profit was estimated to be around 20 RMB/ton. The cost support of ethyl alcohol was still acceptable.

On the supply side, the alcohol production facilities in the Henan market may have a shutdown plan during the Spring Festival period. The overall spot supply on the supply side was abundant, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices was strong. The inquiry atmosphere was still acceptable. There were unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethyl alcohol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support still existed; Methyl ethyl ester maintained stable purchasing volume for anhydrous ethyl alcohol; The utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity fluctuated narrowly. The short-term impact of ethyl alcohol demand is expected to break through.

Market outlook

Downstream enterprises were watching the market with insufficient positive news, and terminal procurement was mainly for essential needs. SunSirs’ ethyl alcohol analyst predicts that the domestic ethyl alcohol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

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