Price trend

In the first two working days of this week, the domestic liquid ammonia market showed a sluggish performance, with the main production area of Shandong province experiencing two consecutive days of decline in liquid ammonia. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the main production area of Shandong experienced a decline of 3.60%.

Analysis review

The main reason was the loose performance of the supply side, with little change in the operating rate of manufacturers, and an increase in the amount of urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, which put pressure on the price of liquid ammonia. At the beginning of the week, major factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by around 100 RMB/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And the enthusiasm for downstream procurement was not high, with a focus on maintaining light inventory before the holiday. The prices of new orders in the peripheral market continued to decline, and the market performance was mainly cautious. Agricultural demand was still in the off-season, while industrial demand remained rigid, and the overall demand side was bearish. As of January 21st, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region was 2,250-2,350 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

As the Spring Festival approaching, the market atmosphere was light, fertilizer procurement was off-season, downstream operating rates have significantly decreased, and industrial demand was urgently following suit. However, the supply of liquid ammonia was relatively sufficient, and the pressure of supply and demand was prominent. It is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in ammonia prices before the holiday.

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