According to data from January 2025, the long-term contract price for thermal coal is approximately 693 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3 RMB/ton month on month and 17 RMB/ton year-on-year. This price reflects the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the thermal coal market and the impact of energy policies.

Domestic market price

Last week (January 23, 2025), the price information of thermal coal showed a slight downward trend overall. Based on specific data, the market price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port closed at 760 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7 RMB/ton from last week. In addition, the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Datong, Shanxi was 628 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3 RMB/ton from last week; The price of Q5800 thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi is 653 RMB/ton, an increase of 1 RMB/ton compared to last week; The price of Q5500 thermal coal in Ordos, Inner Mongolia is 572 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5 RMB/ton from last week.

International market prices

The price of Indonesian thermal coal is running steadily. Influenced by the end of the holiday and strong market quotations, the offshore price of 3,800 kcal/kg thermal coal is reported at 50.8-51 US dollars/ton, and the index of 4,700 kcal/kg is reported at +2 US dollars/ton. The price of thermal coal in Russia has slightly decreased, with the offshore price of 5,500 kcal coal at Far East Port approaching $76.7 per ton. The price of Australian thermal coal has fallen, with the price of 6,000 kcal thermal coal falling below $117/ton. The price of thermal coal in South Africa remains weakly stable, with an offshore price of $84 per ton for 5,500 kcal coal.

Price Trend Prediction

Overall, it is expected that the price center of domestic thermal coal in the first quarter of 2025 will first increase and then decrease, and the price center will be lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2024. This prediction is based on current market dynamics and preliminary assessments of future supply and demand relationships. However, the actual price trend may be affected by various uncertain factors, including policy adjustments, fluctuations in international energy prices, and natural disasters.

From these data, it can be observed that although the prices of thermal coal have increased in some regions, the overall market prices are showing a downward trend, mainly due to weak downstream demand and tight coal mine supply during the Spring Festival period. In addition, the slight increase in port inventory has further affected the fluctuation of coal prices.

Overall, last week's thermal coal prices showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and specific price changes still need to pay attention to downstream market demand and post holiday dynamics.

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