As of April 17, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 3,680 RMB/ ton, down 0.27% from 3,690 RMB/ ton at the beginning of last week.

On April 17, the fuel oil commodity index was 74.53, down 0.12 points from the previous day, down 35.70% from the highest point 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and up 61.74% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the domestic fuel oil transaction last week was light, and the actual transaction price was about 3,600 RMB/ ton.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $22.7/ barrel at the beginning of last week, $19.87/ barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase or decrease of -12.70%; Brent crude oil was $31.48/ barrel at the beginning of last week, $27.82/ barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.63%. Although OPEC+ production reduction meeting achieved production reduction, it was less than the expected quantity. In addition, with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventory, the demand of crude oil market is expected to decline sharply, and the international crude oil price continues to decline.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there were 5 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities were LPG (8.62%), DME (4.47%) and MTBE (3.86%). There were 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were WTI crude oil (-12.70%), Brent crude oil (-11.63%) and naphtha (-10.17%). Last week's average was -1.58%.

Market Forecast

Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that, as the international crude oil fell sharply last week, the overall demand of domestic ship fuel market is light, the transaction is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see is dominant. It is expected that the fuel oil market price will stabilize in the near future, or around 3,600 RMB/ ton.

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