Review of Coking Coal Market in 2024:

According to monitoring data from SunSirs, the price of coking coal at the beginning of the year was 2,450 RMB/ton, and at the end of the year it was 1,609.75 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%. From the trend chart, we can see that the coking coal market in 2024 is showing a fluctuating downward trend. Most of the year is in a state of decline, although there have been two increases, the overall increase has not been as significant as the decrease, and by the end of the year, it has fallen to the lowest point of the year. Despite the impact of safety inspections and other factors in the early stages, which led to a decrease in production in major coal producing areas such as Shanxi Province, coal production subsequently showed a monthly trend of recovery under a series of policies such as stable production and supply guarantee. After February, the capacity utilization rate and output of coking coal mines have steadily increased, leading to an increase in market supply and thus exerting downward pressure on prices. At the same time, the decrease in downstream demand has led to a decline in steel prices. The imbalance between supply and demand in this market ultimately led to a decline in the price of coking coal market.

The production of coking coal will significantly decrease in 2024, with a total output of approximately 472 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.67%. The situation of overcapacity still exists, and the overall supply remains high. On the one hand, policies such as stable production and supply guarantee have helped to boost the production of key resources such as coal, especially in major production areas such as Shanxi Province, where production has been increasing month by month after experiencing initial reductions. On the other hand, the utilization rate and output of raw materials such as coking coal have steadily increased since February, and the market supply has also increased. It is expected that the overall supply will continue to remain high in 2025.

Forecast of demand for coking coal in 2025:

On the demand side: The steel industry is facing a downward cycle, with no improvement in real estate demand and a slowdown in manufacturing growth, resulting in an overall decline in steel market demand. Due to the sluggish demand for steel, lack of confidence, and cautious production pace, the demand for coking coal in coking steel enterprises has correspondingly decreased.

According to customs data, the total export volume of coking coal in China in 2024 was 725,800 tons, an increase of 359,200 tons from 2023 and a year-on-year increase of 97.98%. According to customs data, the total import volume of coking coal in China in 2024 was 121.895 million tons, an increase of 19.72% year-on-year. From the graph, it can be seen that the export volume of coking coal in China will significantly increase in 2024. In the future, with the growth of production capacity, the increase of market demand, and the strengthening of policy support, the export volume of coking coal in China is expected to further increase.

2025 Coking Coal Market Forecast:

Looking ahead to 2025, the coking coal market is expected to face a situation of oversupply, with annual production expected to climb to about 560 million tons, while consumption is unlikely to break through the 550 million ton mark. The growth momentum on the supply side mainly comes from the recovery of domestic coal mining capacity and the increase in imported coal volume. On the contrary, the demand side is facing the dual pressure of overcapacity in the coking industry and sluggish demand in the steel market. Affected by this, the price level of coking coal is expected to continue to decline, and the market operating pressure will increase. The future development of the coking coal market still needs to closely monitor changes in terminal demand and policy factors.

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