According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp both showed an upward trend in January 2025. On January 24th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,600 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.12% compared to the average price on January 1st. On January 24th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,880 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.86% compared to the average price on January 1st.

In terms of supply, the shipment of wood pulp to the port in January has been reduced, and the import volume is mostly at a low level, which has made the market supply relatively tight. In January and February 2025, pulp prices for external markets have all increased, boosting market sentiment. Domestic buyers have a high enthusiasm for receiving goods, which provides some support for pulp prices. At the beginning of the month, a strike occurred in Finland, which may affect the production and shipment of pulp in the future.

On the demand side: Due to the earlier start of this year's Spring Festival compared to previous years, downstream suppliers have entered a state of early stocking, resulting in a certain demand for replenishment in the market in early January. Restocking before the end of the year also drives strong paper prices and production and sales. Driven by replenishment in various stages of the industry, pulp prices are showing an upward trend. In late January, although the pre Spring Festival stocking was gradually completed and procurement slowed down, the upward trend of import dutiable prices due to import quotations and the depreciation of the Chinese RMB also limited the downward space of wood pulp prices.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's pulp imports in December 2024 were 3.237 million tons, an increase of 15.6% month on month and a decrease of 8.8% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume for the year was 34.349 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.3%.

Domestic port data: As of January 23, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 1.758 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% month on month, and port inventory showed a trend of destocking for four consecutive weeks. The inventory of pulp in the mainstream domestic port of Qingdao Port shows a narrow range of accumulation, with broad-leaved pulp accounting for more than coniferous pulp in the port, and the daily shipment speed has not changed much. The trend of destocking within the inventory range of Changshu Port has resulted in a cumulative shipment of nearly 130,000 tons within the week.

In terms of futures, the main contract prices of pulp futures are strong and fluctuating. As of January 24th, the opening price of the main contract sp2503 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,130 RMB/ton, the closing price was 6,114 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 6,162 RMB/ton, with 233,100 transactions and 99,730 positions held.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that the current Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and spot prices are largely affected by pulp futures prices. In the short term, foreign, domestic, and finished paper prices are rising simultaneously, coupled with the increase in exchange rates and import costs. This still supports the price of wood pulp, and it is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will remain at a high level for consolidation.

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