Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China had risen this month (1.1-1.25), with an average market price of 245,960 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 247,210 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.51%.

Analysis review

The tin price in January showed fluctuations overall and upward movements.

At the mining end, domestic tin mines have tightened this month, and processing fees have continued to decline. The probability of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar after the Spring Festival would be relatively high. This would help alleviate the tension in the tin supply side, which would directly have a negative impact on tin prices. In addition, with the stabilization of Indonesian tin ingot exports and the stabilization of supply in Africa and South America, the supply pattern of the global tin market would be further optimized. In the long run, the grade of tin ore continues to decline, new production capacity is limited, and reserves continue to decline, which means that the tin supply side is still tight.

On the inventory side, the supply of tin concentrate has tightened recently, processing fees have been reduced, and the operating rate of smelters has decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in tin ingot production. In addition, the market's explicit inventory continued to decrease and fell to a low level, giving tin prices upward elasticity due to the low inventory state.

On the demand side, although the seasonality of the consumer side was weakening, the pre Spring Festival inventory demand has led to active market trading. Downstream soldering companies have performed well in orders, especially in the context of sustained growth in consumer electronics products. As a key component, the demand for soldering materials has maintained a certain level of growth in a stable manner.

Market outlook

Overall, tin prices showed a fluctuating upward trend in January. However, considering the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, market demand may temporarily weaken and market trading volume may decrease. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate within the range in the short term.

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