The domestic refined oil price adjustment window for this round opened at 24:00 on February 6th. The retail price adjustment of refined oil has been stalled, and the retail price of refined oil has experienced two upward adjustments in 2025. During this cycle, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, and the adjustment range of refined oil has not yet reached the adjustment red line of 50 RMB/ton. Therefore, the retail price of refined oil for this round will not be adjusted temporarily.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first rose and then fell. As of the 5th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.03 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.61 per barrel. At the beginning of this cycle, crude oil prices rose. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement was extended, and the United States increased sanctions on Russia. There were strong concerns about supply shortages, and the supply of crude oil was supported by favorable factors. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the winter cold wave in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, leading to an upward trend in the crude oil market. In the later stage of this cycle, the United States imposed tariffs and Trump demanded OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, with the significant increase in US crude oil inventories, the market still has concerns about crude oil demand, and crude oil market prices have fallen sharply. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle has significantly narrowed in a positive direction. As of the 6th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 0.75%, corresponding to an increase of about 35 RMB/ton in domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices, which did not touch the adjustment red line of 50 RMB/ton. The adjustment of refined oil retail prices in 2025 has been stalled for the first time.

In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of local refineries has remained at a low level recently. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 57%, and the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 84%. There has been little change in the supply of refined oil products. During the Spring Festival travel rush, there is a strong demand for gasoline, and gasoline terminal consumption has increased compared to before. Intermediaries are actively replenishing their inventory. In addition, with the decrease in temperature, the use of car air conditioning has increased, which is favorable for the gasoline market. The overall trend of the gasoline market continues to rise. However, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought certain impacts on gasoline demand, and there are still negative factors affecting the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel, there has been little change in the supply side diesel market recently. In terms of demand, the northern region has been affected by the cold wave, and severe weather has restricted outdoor mining, infrastructure and other units from starting work. The outdoor operating rate and logistics transportation industry activity have decreased, which has suppressed the demand for diesel. However, the export side has driven diesel demand. In addition, some traders and terminal enterprises have been actively purchasing before the Spring Festival. Overall, the recent trend of diesel prices has risen.

Looking at the future, there are currently many favorable factors supporting the crude oil market, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. Concerns about supply shortages still exist, but the United States' imposition of tariffs and Trump's demand for OPEC to increase production are bearish on market oil prices. In the short term, crude oil market prices are mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has not changed much, and the supply of refined oil has eased market pressure. The demand for gasoline is favorable, and gasoline market prices remain high; Recently, due to the cold weather, there has been no actual improvement in diesel demand, and the diesel market is mainly volatile in the short term.

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