Last week (4.13-4.17), the price of refined petroleum coke was slightly reduced. According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of the main stream of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1,080 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week, 1,055 RMB/ ton at the end of last week, down 25 RMB/ ton in the week, up or down -2.31% in the week.
On April 17, the petroleum coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from the previous day, down 47.26% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.68% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: last week, the overall delivery of refined petroleum coke was average, the operating rate of refining increased, and the inventory pressure of the refinery was large.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $22.7/ barrel at the beginning of last week, $19.87/ barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase or decrease of -12.70%; Brent crude oil was $31.48/ barrel at the beginning of last week, $27.82/ barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.63%. Although OPEC+ production reduction meeting achieved production reduction, it was less than the expected quantity. In addition, with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventory, the demand of crude oil market is expected to decline sharply, and the international crude oil price continues to decline. Downstream: some calcined coke burning enterprises will produce, and the overall demand of downstream enterprises is general. The operating rate of downstream carbon enterprises is low, and the demand is general. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by cost, and the price has increased. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of April 17 was 12,016.67 RMB/ ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there were 5 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities were LPG (8.62%), DME (4.47%) and MTBE (3.86%). There were 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were WTI crude oil (-12.70%), Brent crude oil (-11.63%) and naphtha (-10.17%). Last week's average was -1.58%.
Market Forecast
Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predicted that the market price of petroleum coke in the last week fell slightly, mainly due to the increase of the operating rate of local refining enterprises, the increase of market supply, the large inventory pressure, the limited operating rate in the downstream, the general demand, and the strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the near future will be stable, and some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, with the price range of ahout 950-1,100 RMB/ ton.
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