Price trend
As shown in the above figure, copper prices have slightly increased after the holiday. As of February 7th, the spot copper price was 76,753.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.02% compared to the price before the holiday and a year-on-year increase of 12.89%.
Copper weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, copper prices have risen for 6 weeks and fallen for 6 weeks in the past three months, with a slight increase this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventory fell, with 249,275 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 8.13% from the beginning of the year.
Copper mine supply remained tight
The tight supply situation of copper mines did not ease during the Spring Festival period, but instead showed a trend of intensification. The TC index of imported copper concentrate spot has turned negative, which means that smelting enterprises need to pay higher fees when purchasing copper concentrate, which directly compresses smelting profits and limits the production of crude copper in mineral resources. Scrap crude copper has become the main incremental source of copper supply, but due to the implementation of the reverse invoicing policy in January, it is expected that the supply of scrap copper will decrease. In addition, seasonal maintenance may also lead to a decline in domestic electrolytic copper production.
During the Spring Festival, domestic copper inventory accumulated
During the Spring Festival holiday, London copper inventories continued to decrease, but domestic copper inventories showed an accumulation trend. Due to the slow resumption of work and production by downstream enterprises after the holiday, the market procurement demand was not high, and the sentiment tended to be wait-and-see, which led to increased pressure on spot inventory and temporarily limited the rebound space of copper prices.
Seasonal weakening of downstream demand during holidays
The Spring Festival holiday has weakened the seasonality of downstream demand, causing downstream factories to shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in operating rates and a decrease in copper demand. For example, in January 2025, the retail scale of the domestic passenger car market plummeted by 33.6% month on month and 14.6% year-on-year, greatly dragging down copper demand. However, while the demand in traditional fields is declining, the demand for copper in emerging fields such as new energy electric vehicles, data centers, and 5G base stations is still growing rapidly. The development of artificial intelligence has also brought new growth points for copper demand.
The US dollar and US bond markets both plummeted
The US economic data has shown a complex trend recently, with unexpectedly strong ADP employment data for January, while the ISM manufacturing index and trade data for January performed poorly. This contrast has led to a sharp drop in both the US dollar and US Treasury markets, adding attractiveness to copper and other metal commodities priced in US dollars.
Market outlook
In summary, downstream factories have started construction one after another after the holiday, with an increase in operating rates. Domestic policy signals are strong, and the market is closely monitoring policy guidance during the two sessions, especially in key consumer areas such as real estate and new energy. Moreover, the tight supply situation in the mining sector is difficult to change, which is expected to support the upward trend of copper prices. But we also need to pay attention to the uncertainty brought about by changes in overseas trade policies. It It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate to be stronger in the short term.
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