On February 10, 2025 local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum products, and clearly stating that this policy has "no exceptions or exemptions".

SunSirs believes that this measure has limited direct impact on the Chinese aluminum industry, mainly due to the dominance of domestic aluminum consumption in the market. The Chinese aluminum consumption market is mainly domestic, with exports accounting for a relatively low proportion of total production (about 23%), and exports to the United States only accounting for 2%. Therefore, the direct impact of US tax increases on the supply and demand of the domestic aluminum market is limited. China's direct export volume of aluminum materials to the United States is relatively small. According to data from 2023, the total annual export volume of aluminum materials from China is about 5 million to 6 million tons, of which exports to the United States account for only 4.6%, and the North American Free Trade Zone (including the United States, Canada, and Mexico) accounts for a total of 18%. Due to the high anti-dumping duties imposed by the United States on Chinese aluminum products (with a comprehensive tax rate of 25%), China's direct exports to the United States have been significantly reduced. Currently, China mainly enters the US market indirectly through transit trade (such as Mexico and Canada). However, China's direct export volume of aluminum materials to the United States is relatively small. According to data from 2023, China's total annual export volume of aluminum materials is about 5-6 million tons, of which exports to the United States account for only 4.6%, and the North American Free Trade Zone (including the United States, Canada, and Mexico) accounts for a total of 18%. Due to the high anti-dumping duties imposed by the United States on Chinese aluminum products (with a comprehensive tax rate of 25%), China's direct exports to the United States have been significantly reduced. Currently, China mainly enters the US market indirectly through transit trade (such as Mexico and Canada).

The United States has imposed a 25% tariff on all aluminum products imported into the United States, which has a significant impact on major aluminum exporting countries. US aluminum imports are divided into three categories: primary aluminum, scrap aluminum, and aluminum products. Canada leads the supply of primary aluminum, Mexico focuses on scrap aluminum and alloys, and China focuses on aluminum products. The main sources of electrolytic aluminum imports in the United States are Canada (79%), Mexico, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and India. In addition, Brazil, Australia, Bahrain, and other countries also export electrolytic aluminum to the United States.

The annual demand for aluminum in the United States exceeds 5 million tons, but the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum is only about 1.1 million tons, heavily relying on imports (especially from Canada and Mexico). Imposing a 25% tariff will push up domestic aluminum prices in the United States, increase costs for downstream manufacturing industries such as automobiles and aerospace, and ultimately transmit to consumers, exacerbating inflationary pressures.

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