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SunSirs: China BR Market is Weak and slightly Declining
February 13 2025 09:39:13SunSirs(Selena)

Recently (2.4-2.11), the market for BR has been weak and slightly declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of February 11, the market price of BR in East China was 14830 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from the pre holiday price of 15,000 RMB/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of BR is still supported; BR production continues to decline, with less pressure on the supply side; Downstream construction is still at a low level after the holiday. Recently, the supply prices of BR suppliers have remained stable, and there has been a weak adjustment in merchant quotes. As of February 11th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze regions in East China are 14,700-15,000 RMB/ton.

Recently (2.4-2.11), the price of butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of BR continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 11th, the price of butadiene was 12,637 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.20% from the pre holiday price of 12,662 RMB/ton.

Recently (2.4-2.11), the construction of domestic BR plants has remained at a low level, with overall construction around 62%.

Demand side: After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production has been low, and the atmosphere of terminal buying is flat, resulting in relatively light demand for BR.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of raw material butadiene will stabilize at a high level, and the cost of BR will continue to be strongly supported; Downstream production is low after the holiday, and market transactions remain weak; BR production remains at a low level, but with the restart of the Haopu unit and the trial run of the new unit at Yulong Petrochemical after the holiday, the supply side is expected to increase in the later period. Overall, under the influence of demand and supply, it is expected that the BR market will consolidate weakly at a high level in the later period.

 

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