According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, after the Spring Festival, the palm oil market continued to rise sharply, with an increase of nearly 8%. On February 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 9,430 RMB/ton, and on February 12th, the average market price of palm oil was 10,176 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 7.91%.

In terms of supply: The production of palm oil in Malaysia, the main producing country, has decreased, with low inventory and tight supply. Domestic palm oil imports will decrease year-on-year in 2024. During the Spring Festival, the import volume of palm oil from China to ports decreased. The supply side is bullish, and the spot market for palm oil continues to rise.

Production: In January, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased to 123.7 tons, a month on month decrease of 16.80%, and the lowest production since April 2023.

In terms of inventory: At the end of January, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 7.55% compared to the same period last year, and a decrease of 21.78% compared to the same period last year, which is the lowest inventory since April 2023.

In terms of domestic imports: China's palm oil imports in December 2024 were 320,000 tons, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year; The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.4%. During the Spring Festival, the import volume of palm oil from China to ports gradually decreased.

In terms of futures: During the Spring Festival, the foreign oil market rose, and after the holiday, the palm oil market saw a rebound. The domestic futures market continued to rise. As of February 12th, the main contract for palm oil closed at 9,154 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 102 RMB/ton, which is more than 5% higher than before the holiday. The domestic palm oil futures market rose, while the spot market followed suit. Since February, the palm oil market has risen strongly, with spot prices exceeding 10,000 RMB, an increase of over 700 RMB/ton.

In terms of demand: During the Spring Festival, the catering industry is in the peak consumption season, and the demand for vegetable oil rigid consumption has increased. After the festival, the vegetable oil market has improved, and end manufacturers have been stocking up one after another. The palm oil market continues to rise, and the market's bullish expectations have increased. Supported by demand, the domestic palm oil spot market continues to rise.

The palm oil analyst from SunSirs believes that in mid to late February, the favorable factors in China will gradually materialize, and the demand for vegetable oil consumption will decline. The upward trend of palm oil market is difficult to sustain, and the future palm oil market will mainly fluctuate at a high level.

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