Price trend

This week (2.9-2.14), the nickel market moved downwards and fluctuated at a low level. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, on February 14th, spot nickel was reported at 125,650 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.37%.

Analysis review

Macroscopically: Disruption of tariff policies. On February 10th, the United States announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the United States, causing an increase in multi metal prices but not boosting nickel prices.

Supply side: It is expected that China's refined nickel production in February will be 35,000 tons, an increase of 4.1% month on month and 43.1% year-on-year. In addition, new projects such as Zhongwei Group are gradually climbing production, and the pattern of nickel surplus will continue. Domestic and international inventory continues to accumulate. On February 14th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29,117 tons, a decrease of 348 tons during the week; On February 14th, LME nickel inventory was 180,900 tons, an increase of 5,190 tons for the week.

Demand side: Insufficient consumption growth in the short term, lower than expected resumption of work and procurement by downstream enterprises, or intensified price trend pressure, and wait-and-see sentiment may continue. Steel mills continued to deliver, but demand was weak and inventory backlog has slightly increased. On February 14th, the reference price of stainless steel in SunSirs was 13,180 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the month, with a narrow range of fluctuations.

Market outlook

The pattern of nickel surplus continued, demand was insufficient, and macroeconomic sentiment was disturbed. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the range at low levels.

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