Price trend

This week (2.15-2.21), the nickel market first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, as of February 21st, spot nickel prices were quoted at 126,016 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.29%.

Analysis review

Macro: As of February 21st, with the measures taken by the People's Bank of China to support economic recovery, China's new bank loans in January hit a historic high and exceeded expectations, which has strengthened people's expectations that China will introduce more stimulus measures in the coming months.

Supply side: Due to the tight supply during the rainy season, nickel ore prices have risen in the mining sector. The pattern of nickel surplus continued. On February 21st, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 28,254 tons, a decrease of 863 tons during the week; The trend of LME nickel inventory accumulation has not stopped. On February 21st, LME nickel inventory was 192,906 tons, an increase of 12,006 tons during the week.

On the demand side: The resumption of work and procurement by downstream enterprises has improved, but overall demand growth remained relatively slow. There was an expected increase in stainless steel production in March, and some downstream enterprises started to purchase materials in small quantities. The recovery of export orders was good, but the overall purchasing atmosphere was weak. Stainless steel prices have slightly increased this week. As of February 21st, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was temporarily quoted at 12,164.29 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.29% from the beginning of the week. The proportion of installed ternary batteries was gradually decreasing, and the production of ternary positive electrode materials was mostly determined by sales, without contributing to incremental growth.

Market outlook

A slight boost in demand and macroeconomic sentiment disturbanced, but the pattern of nickel surplus continued, limiting the upward trend of the market. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the low level range.

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