Trend of aluminum market

This week the spot aluminum price fluctuated around the range of 12,200-12550 yuan / ton.

According to SunSirs data, as of April 24, the average domestic aluminum ingot market price was 12,476.67 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month (April 1), the average market price was 11,526.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.24%; compared with the beginning of the week (April 19), the average market price was 12,160 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.60%.

Bottomed out and aluminum prices rose in April

After the Spring Festival, the aluminum price plummeted, and once fell below the average cost price of the industry. In late March, domestic production reduction and maintenance companies began to increase. Some manufacturers circumvented large losses by reducing production and shutting down maintenance. In April, the price of electrolytic aluminum began to bottom out. The willingness to launch new production capacity has been reduced, and the time has been slightly delayed; on the other hand, the impact of international COVID-19 is greater, and some foreign aluminum companies are expected to reduce production.

In March, aluminum prices plummeted, aluminum imports hit a new high of more than 6 years

According to customs data, the import volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March was 121,025 tons, while the import volume in March 2019 was 35,420 tons. In March, China ’s aluminum imports more than tripled from the same period of the previous year, reaching its highest level in more than six years, while the import of raw material bauxite fell.

It is reported that in March when aluminum prices plummeted, aluminum imports in that month were the highest since China imported 125,180 tons in December 2013. China ’s aluminum imports in the first quarter were 302,580 tons, which was 2.5 times that of the same period last year.

Weak overseas demand, Product backflow?

China is the world's largest aluminum producer and exporter. Judging from the import and export data in March, domestic aluminum prices fell violently in March. Due to the weak overseas demand, overseas production capacity has reversed the market and dumped into domestic consumption recovery areas. The domestic aluminum price in March was greatly affected by the international market.

Estimated market outlook

From the perspective of historical price trends, the current price is not high. Although the price of the raw material end of the industrial chain has moved down simultaneously, the cost support is still strong. The domestic demand in the second quarter is expected to warm up. In the later period, the high probability of maintaining stability is mainly based on strong operation, and it is expected that this month will shock around the 12,500 line.

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