Aluminum prices strengthened in February

Aluminum prices strengthened in February, but it decreased on February 25th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 25, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20,407.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the market average price of 20213.33 RMB/ton on February 1.

On February 25th, the market price dropped by about 200 RMB/ton compared to the previous day. The spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) from Aluminum Corporation of China Limited in the East China market was 20,390 RMB/ton, a decrease of 200 RMB/ton; The external quotation for the South China market was 20,380 RMB/ton, a decrease of 200 RMB/ton; The Southwest market quoted 20,320 RMB/ton to the outside world, a decrease of 200 RMB/ton; The Central Plains market quoted 20,260 RMB/ton to the outside world, a decrease of 180 RMB/ton.

In terms of futures, on February 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,655 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.60%.

Reasons for the decline in aluminum prices

1. Expected loosening of Russian aluminum ban

On February 24th, the Russian President announced that Russia was ready to supply 2 million tons of aluminum to the US market. The market's expectation of Rusal returning to the market has risen.

2. The conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict has eased, and energy has risen in the early stage, pushing up the cost of aluminum ingots in Europe, thus supporting the loose expectation of aluminum prices.

3. Seasonal accumulation trend of domestic aluminum ingots:

Aluminum ingot inventory maintained a trend of depletion, and the rate of depletion far exceeded expectations. Data showed that as of February 24th, China's aluminum ingot inventory has accumulated 24,000 to 880,000 tons, and aluminum bars have accumulated 6,000 to 334,500 tons.

Other inventory data: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 535,900 tons on February 24th, and on February 25th, Shanghai Aluminum's main contract warehouse receipt was 118,380 tons, an increase of 2,723 tons from the previous day.

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