Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices fluctuated and rose in February. At the beginning of the month, the price of 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,195 RMB/ton, which rose to 4,210 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.36%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.11%. Due to the market entering a state of Spring Festival closure before the holiday, price fluctuations were relatively weak. After the holiday, as the market gradually resumed work, ferrous futures prices fluctuated and strengthened, upstream raw material prices rose slightly, and market confidence improved. Some markets saw a slight increase, but overall, most mainstream market prices remained stable.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials: most pipe plants resumed production during the period from the eighth day of the lunar new year to the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), and the supply gradually rebounded after the festival. However, because the profits of pipe plants were still at a low level and some large enterprises were still undergoing maintenance, the high point of supply recovery was limited, and the supply of seamless tubes may be slightly tight at the beginning of the year. The latest data at the end of January showed a weekly output of 275,900 tons, a decrease of 8,100 tons compared to the same period last month.

Demand: The demand recovery in February was relatively slow, and the market started from the eighth day of February to Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). Nearly half of the markets in February were closed or in sporadic demand. The deal may be gradually recovered after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), and most policies have not been implemented in the short term. The release of actual terminal demand may be delayed to the end of February or March.

In terms of exports: From January to December 2024, China exported a total of 5.7226 million tons of seamless tubes, an increase of 1.03% year-on-year. In December, China exported 601,400 tons of seamless tubes, an increase of 9.76% year-on-year and 31.54% year-on-year. From January to December 2024, China imported a total of 118,000 tons of seamless tubes, an increase of 11.11% year-on-year; From January to December 2024, China's cumulative net export of seamless tubes was 5.6046 million tons, an increase of 0.83% year-on-year.

Market outlook

In summary, the raw material prices in February were relatively strong, with an increase of 10-50 RMB/ton, which provided some support for the seamless tube prices. Demand recovered slowly in February, and market transactions mainly recovered after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). With the further recovery of downstream demand in March, market transactions will gradually become active, while cost support still exists, which will drive price increases. It is expected that seamless tube prices will fluctuate to be stronger in March, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of changes in the international trade environment and adjustments in the market competition pattern on the market.

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