Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the TDI market in East China in China experienced a significant decline after rising in February. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 14,000 RMB/ton. On February 26th, the TDI price was 12,950 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.5% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 25.14%.

Analysis review

In February, the TDI market in East China was greatly affected by the supply side and news. At the beginning of the month, there were continuous positive news from the supply side, and the filling of goods in the market was slow. Mainstream major manufacturers raised prices one after another, boosting market confidence and pushing prices up at high levels. Subsequently, the high prices continued until mid month. In the latter half of the month, due to high prices and compressed profit margins for downstream products, there was a strong resistance to high prices, resulting in fewer actual TDI transactions. Under sales pressure, TDI prices began to decline. The price has fallen to around the beginning of the year, and some downstream companies have entered the market on dips. TDI prices have risen, waiting for market feedback.

Supply side: Fujian Wanhua's 360,000 tons/year TDI plant was operating at medium to high loads. BASF's 160,000 ton/year TDI plant in Lishui, South Korea is undergoing a three week maintenance. The 150,000 ton TDI unit of Hanhua in South Korea is undergoing routine shutdown and maintenance for approximately one month.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated within a range in February. As of February 25th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6,571 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from the price of 6,620 RMB/ton on February 1st. Within the month, downstream companies maintained their essential inventory and actual transactions were limited. The demand for oil blending industry in Shandong region was still good, driving the market atmosphere to recover. In South China region, due to low inventory, the market atmosphere was good, and the listing prices of main refineries were relatively firm. The overall market was stable, with a slightly strong performance. Later, with the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the sentiment of the toluene market was affected, and the market operated weakly, resulting in a slight decrease in prices.

Market outlook

The TDI data analyst from SunSirs believes that the TDI price has fallen to a low level, and downstream market enthusiasm has improved, indicating a turning point in prices. If the market continues to move smoothly in the future, it is expected that the TDI market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term.

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