According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper showed a downward trend in February 2025. On February 27th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,856 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.12% compared to the average price on February 1st.

In terms of upstream raw materials: In February, the decline in waste paper prices in Zhejiang expanded, and domestic waste paper prices also showed a downward trend. On February 27th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,482 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.18% compared to the average price on February 1st. After the Spring Festival holiday, paper mills in various regions have resumed work and production one after another. However, before the holiday, paper mills had relatively sufficient inventory of waste paper, which has led to a low demand for waste paper in the market recently. Therefore, the price of waste paper has not changed much and is relatively stable. With the resumption of work at the packaging station, the shipment of waste paper has become more active, resulting in an increase in the amount of waste paper received by the paper mill. In a state of oversupply, the decline in waste paper prices continued to expand and decline until the end of the month when there was a slight easing.

In terms of supply: Due to the holiday season, the paper mill's supply and production at the beginning of the month were somewhat weak. After the RMBxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, the production of paper mills continued to increase, so the supply increased. In 2025, the production capacity of corrugated paper will maintain a positive growth trend. According to currently released data, the planned new corrugated paper project production capacity in 2025 is about 2.29 million tons, and the increase in new production capacity will further intensify the market competition pattern. Therefore, under high supply conditions, the price of corrugated paper is under pressure.

In terms of demand: There has been no significant increase in purchasing demand for paper packaging enterprises and end markets after the holiday, and paper mills mainly rely on pre year orders for delivery. However, the demand for corrugated paper in the market is slowly recovering, and the market is maintaining a state of essential procurement. In addition, with the continuous decline in the price of waste paper, there is a strong correlation between the prices of corrugated paper and waste paper, resulting in a corresponding decrease in the price of corrugated paper. However, from March to August, it is the traditional off-season for corrugated paper consumption, and the weak performance of corrugated paper may continue.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the current corrugated paper market is showing a trend of strong supply and weak demand, and the market has already shown a relatively weak trend. In addition, the significant decline in the price of waste paper raw materials has led to a bearish sentiment in the market, and it is expected that corrugated paper prices will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

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