According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 28th, the average selling price of PET was 6,270 RMB/ton. The price showed a fluctuating trend of first rising and then falling in February, and entered the second half of the year with a downward trend.

In terms of cost: In mid February, WTI crude oil prices rose to $72.32 per barrel, briefly supporting the cost side, but later weakened the cost support for PE bottle flakes due to global economic concerns and OPEC+ production expectations falling. The price expectations for the main raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol are weak. PTA processing fees are at a low level (300-350 RMB/ton), and the expectation of high and low crude oil prices weakens cost support; The improvement of the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol is limited, and the price center has shifted downwards, further dragging down the cost of bottle chips.

In terms of supply: The PE bottle chip industry is still at the end of its capacity expansion cycle, with a high capacity base of existing equipment, leading to sustained pressure of oversupply. The inventory level in February was at a high level compared to the same period, coupled with the expected release of new production capacity (planned to add 2.15 million tons in 2025), intensifying market concerns about oversupply. Although the growth rate of new production capacity has slowed down, the overall pattern of supply exceeding demand in the market has not changed, which has suppressed the upward space of prices.

In terms of demand: Some companies have completed procurement after the holiday, but actual transactions have been slow. The lack of market chasing sentiment has led to a wait-and-see attitude among traders and downstream enterprises, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. However, the current industry has low processing fees, factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, and there is also a reduction in supply.

In response to the current market situation, SunSirs believes that the continued weakness of PE bottle chip prices in February is mainly due to loose supply and demand, as well as negative costs. In the short term, the PET market may have limited volatility, and overall it presents a narrow adjustment pattern. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.

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