The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on March 5th, and the zero selling price of refined oil has been lowered again. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has gone through two upward adjustments, one downward adjustment, and one stranded. The crude oil market trend has declined during this cycle, and the crude oil change rate has remained negative. The zero selling price of refined oil in 2025 will usher in the "second" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has declined. As of the 4th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.26 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.04 per barrel. The downward trend in crude oil prices during this cycle is due to the easing of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine. The United States is considering easing sanctions on Russia, which has reduced potential supply risks. In addition, oil producing countries plan to increase production slightly from April, which has affected the international crude oil market and led to a decline; On the other hand, the imposition of tariffs by the United States has intensified market concerns and may drag down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a decline in the crude oil market. As of the 5th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -2.63%, corresponding to a reduction of 135 yuan/ton for domestic gasoline and 130 yuan/ton for diesel, equivalent to a reduction of 92 # 0.10, 95# 0.11, and 0# 0.11 yuan per liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of local refineries is still at a low level recently. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 51%, and the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 80%. The supply of refined oil from local refineries has decreased. However, gasoline demand has entered a temporary off-season, and gasoline terminal consumption has returned to residents' daily short distance travel as the main trend. Gasoline consumption has opened up a downward channel, with an imbalance between supply and demand, rising inventory, and low frequency of terminal gas station purchases. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, under the influence of negative factors, the gasoline market trend has declined.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has remained low. In terms of demand, orders for diesel fuel for industrial and mining infrastructure as well as logistics have rebounded, and the pace of vehicle sales has accelerated, resulting in a significant improvement in the supply and demand situation. However, the low crude oil market has suppressed the diesel market, and the combined effects of long and short factors have led to a recent upward trend in diesel prices.

Currently, the crude oil market is fluctuating and declining, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. However, as oil producing countries increase their crude oil production and the United States imposes tariffs, the crude oil market prices are mainly fluctuating and declining in the short term. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate remains low, the supply of refined oil products alleviates market pressure, and the demand for gasoline weakens. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, resulting in a main decline in gasoline market prices; Although diesel is affected by the negative impact of crude oil, with the rise in temperature and the continuous restart of diesel demand in the later stage, diesel has shown an upward trend.

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