Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in February. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1,494 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1,498 RMB/ton. The price increased by 5 RMB/ton during the month, with an overall increase of 0.27%.

On February 28th, the Business Society's light soda ash index was 76.82 points, up 1.95 points from the previous day, a decrease of 59.38% from the cycle's highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 21.65% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

Analysis review

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for soda ash this month first fell and then rose. The utilization rate of soda ash production capacity remained at a high level during the month, and the market supply was sufficient. The sales pressure of spot soda ash factories was high, while downstream glass fluctuated narrowly and mainly consumed inventory, resulting in limited demand for soda ash and overall weak soda ash prices. At the end of the month, affected by the news of soda ash maintenance, the market supply expectation decreased, and the intention of factories to rise increased, resulting in a strong increase in soda ash prices.

As of February 28, 2025, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China was around 1,480-1,550 RMB/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China was around 1,400-1,500 RMB/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China was around 1,480-1,570 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price trend of glass has fluctuated and risen this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 16.20 RMB/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.40 RMB/square meter, an increase of 1.23%. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market has decreased, and the spot market was fluctuating at a high level. Downstream market entry followed suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market was still acceptable. The glass inventory has increased, and the price market was consolidating.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price comparison index of SunSirs' soda ash and glass products on February 28th was 81.65 points, an increase of 4.69 points from the previous day, a decrease of 27.34% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 10.79% from the lowest point of 73.70 points on February 16, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market outlook

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, there are maintenance plans for some domestic soda ash plants, and the expected capacity utilization rate is decreasing. The mentality of spot soda ash plants is optimistic. Recently, the price of light soda ash has risen strongly, and the overall downstream demand for soda ash is limited, there is a game between the supply and demand. It is expected that the price of soda ash will fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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