1. Price Trend
According to SunSirs data, the domestic toluene market price fell back this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was around 3280 yuan / ton, down 6.29% from last week.
2. Factor Analysis
Product:
Due to oversupply of international crude oil, storage capacity is close to saturation, resulting in this week's oil price plunge to the bottom again, WTI's May contract delivery history plunged to a negative range for the first time, the cost end fell, and the superposition of industry demand was not strong. Toluene prices have dropped accordingly. The current mainstream price in East China is around 3400 yuan / ton.
Industry chain:
Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the short-term international crude oil supply is oversupplied, and the storage capacity is close to saturation, which caused the oil price to plummet again this week. The WTI May contract delivery history plunged to a negative range for the first time. As of the early hours of Friday, spot Brent plunged 19.09%, Brent futures plunged 20.44%, WTI futures plunged 34.08%, and Dubai futures plunged 12.09%.
In terms of downstream, TDI, downstream demand is weak. At present, Shanghai's cargo outbound reference is about 9,500 yuan / ton. Wanhua Chemical's TDI settlement price this week is 10,000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend and close Pay attention to the news guidance of the factory and the actual trading situation in the market. In the PX market, this week's domestic Sinopec company's listed price is about 4300 yuan / ton, the latest price of the external disk is about FOB South Korea 445 US dollars / ton and CFR China 463 US dollars / ton, the short-term PX market prices are expected to maintain a stable trend.
3. Future Forecast
Toluene analysts at SunSirs Chemical Branch believe that: looking at the supply cost side in the short term, OPEC's major oil-producing countries Saudi Arabia and Algeria have indicated that they will start to reduce production before the target date of May 1. The situation in the United States and Iraq is tightening and the price of oil is increasing. Looking at the demand side in the medium term, the inflection point of the overseas epidemic situation appears and the economic restart progresses. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the US-Iranian situation on the crude oil market, the trend of international crude oil and the progress of the resumption of domestic downstream enterprises. Taken together, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will depend on crude oil trends next week.
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