Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of lithium carbonate has been continuously declining recently. As of March 11th, the domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 76,000 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.55% from 7,880 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 31.78% from 111,400 RMB/ton in the same period last year; Domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate was priced at 73,900 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.27% from 76,400 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 27.83% from 102,400 RMB/ton in the same period last year.

Analysis review

Supply side: Increased domestic production coupled with rising imports

Domestically speaking, Ningde Times' Jiangxi lithium mica mine resumed production in February, leading to a 25% increase in domestic production volume compared to the previous month in March.

In terms of imports, although Chile sent 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate to China in February, there was a slight decrease compared to the previous month. But in addition to lithium carbonate, Chile sent 10,300 tons of lithium sulfate to China in February, an increase of 391% compared to the previous month. In addition, Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000 ton lithium chloride production capacity in the first phase of the Mariana Lithium Salt Lake project in Argentina was officially put into operation in February, which will also drive China's lithium carbonate imports.

Demand side: ternary materials weakened, ferrous lithium phosphate may become a major trend

From the perspective of material factories, due to the increasing concentration of the industry, top material factories were approaching full production or even seeking outsourcing processing, while small material factories have significantly reduced orders and experienced production stoppages.

From the perspective of ferrous lithium phosphate, the production capacity of power batteries reached 96GWh in March, an increase of 18% compared to the previous month. Among them, ferrous lithium phosphate power batteries performed particularly well, with a production capacity of 65GWh, an increase of 22% compared to the previous month, accounting for about 69%.

Market outlook

The lithium carbonate data analyst from SunSirs believes that, under the premise that the large pattern of lithium carbonate surplus has not been reversed, the weak supply and demand will further suppress prices. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to weaken in the short term, and specific market information and changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.

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