Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has maintained a fluctuating downward trend since March. As of March 12th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6,784 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.57% from the beginning of the month. The average ex factory price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 6,968 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.22% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

The raw material market, the negative economic outlook of the US tariff policy, and the escalation of trade frictions have led to a larger than expected increase in US crude oil inventories. Investors were concerned that OPEC+ will decide to increase production starting in April, causing a weak adjustment in international crude oil prices. As of March 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was 66.25 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 69.56 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the destocking of US crude oil and the disturbance of the situation in the Middle East.

In the PTA market, spot processing fees continued to weaken by the end of 2024 and remained at a low level around 300 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year. The profit gap of the enterprise has led to an increase in maintenance enthusiasm. There were many PTA plant maintenance in March, and as of March 11th, the industry's operating rate was at a one-year low of 77%. According to statistics, the domestic PTA production capacity for maintenance and planned maintenance in March was 10.15 million tons. However, due to weakened costs and insufficient demand, the average PTA market price in East China was 4,748 RMB/ton as of March 12th, a decrease of 4.41% from the beginning of the month.

On the supply and demand side, some polyester staple fiber facilities planned to restart, with an expected increase in supply, and the industry may experience an increase in production. The terminal weaving production has also increased, with the spinning industry's production rising to 79%. However, there was a lack of enthusiasm for purchasing polyester staple fibers and cautious stocking. As of March 12th, the factory indicated that the issuance of new orders was still slow and lacked confidence in the future market. The space for further increase in weaving end elasticity and weaving start-up rate was limited. As of March 12th, the weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was around 67%, and insufficient orders may lead to a subsequent decline in start-up rate.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that demand was weak and maintained purchases on demand, coupled with weak costs driving the price of polyester staple fibers to a bearish trend. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will continue to decline.

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